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Effect.

The change where it ran against the change where it did not, with an interval; or withheld with what would settle it

Figure 1Effectspecified

Effect is a fact at strategy scope. The drawing shows its fields and the objects that they point at.

Fields#

field	type	required	note
`move`	`id`	yes
`design`	DesignOfAnEffect	yes	the design that read it, fixed before the window opened
`change`	Interval	no
`holdout_change`	Interval	no
`effect`	Interval	no
`floor`	`share`	yes
`withheld`	`bool`	yes
`what_would_settle_it`	`text`	no
`forecast`	`id`	yes
`assignments`	`[id]`	yes
`read_at`	`time`	yes
`verdict`	`one of held \| missed \| cannot tell`	no	the forecast’s verdict: held when the effect’s lower bound clears the number that proves it wrong, missed when its upper bound does not, cannot tell between
`share_above_zero`	`share`	no	the share of the effect’s interval that lies above zero; absent when the effect is withheld
`cause_claimed`	`bool`	yes	true when the share above zero reaches the bar of the row that names the share below which no cause is claimed, so the impact is raised; false leaves the effect measured and raises no impact